A return to 'business as usual' is still some time away, but promising signs include the commencement of a special approval process in Japan for an antiviral drug. Our economic analyst Jia-Wei Loh provides an overview of this week's news - as well as a glance at pollution levels in major cities across the globe.
COVID-19 continues to headline news as Australia eases restrictions, and Singapore faces a resurgence of cases. Our economic analyst Reagan D'Souza takes us through this week's key developments. Want to know more about the recent plunge in oil prices? Keep an eye out for the Economics Team's breakdown coming soon!
An end to the oil price war signals some good news for oil producers, against the continued spread of COVID-19 in countries such as Brazil. Scroll through for SMIF Economics Team’s weekly rundown and chart of the week - the new 'popular kid' on the global stage might surprise you.
On April 15th, Donald Trump halted funding to the World Health Organisation, claiming that they had mismanaged the pandemic. What has the US government done to combat COVID-19? Our Economics Team investigates.
ECONOMICS UPDATE
IMF declares global economic recession
The IMF has officially declared a global economic recession. For some countries such as the US, "this will be the toughest week." Our economic analyst Ivan Zhou outlines some of the major announcements and indicators of the past week.
Additional fiscal stimulus packages and divergent COVID-19 progression rates in China and the US headline this week's news. Our economic analyst Alex Knott gives a recap, alongside this chart showing the trend of interest rates in the last 700 years.
After crude oil dropped from $100 a barrel to below $30 post-2014, global capital expenditure in the oil industry collapsed. SMIF Economics believes this poises the oil market for a period of supply shortages supporting higher oil prices in the foreseeable future.
Goldman Sachs and Ray Dalio warn of Bearish Future on the Horizon
Big names in finance have recently warned the world of a bleak future on the horizon after the US has experienced the second longest economic expansion on record. In a recent interview with Bloomberg, Ray Dalio expressed his concerns of an economic downturn in the next two years. According to Dalio, as the fiscal stimulus tapers off, higher interest rates, slower credit growth and unfunded government liabilities pose risks to the US economy.
Goldman Sach’s Market-Risk Indicator is at its highest since 1969. The indicator is designed to provide a reasonable signal for future bull and bear markets. The indicator considers equity valuation, growth momentum, unemployment, inflation and the yield curve. Goldman Strategist Peter Oppenheimer wrote that a long period of low equity returns is most likely.
President Donald Trump Proceeds with $200 billion of Tariffs
President Trump instructed tariffs of $200 billion on Chinese products last Thursday despite Treasury Secretary Mnuchin’s attempts to restart negotiations with Beijing. However, the latest round of tariffs has been delayed as the administration considers the limited amounts of products which would have a significant impact on US consumers and major companies. So far, the Chinese have retaliated with tariffs on an equivalent amount of US exports and promised to match the US tit-for-tat.
Apple said last week that the $200 billion round of tariffs could hit its products such as the Apple Watch and AirPods Headphones. Big retailers also such as Target and Walmart could also be sucked into the trade war as the new round of tariffs may be allocated to consumer products ranging from shoes to TVs.
Officials from both countries have met four times for formal talks to end disputes, most recently in August. All efforts so far have fizzled. Washington has sought to put pressure on Beijing to reduce its trade surplus and protect the intellectual property rights of US companies.
